US stock index futures traded cautiously on Wednesday as investors focused on the delayed January jobs report and upcoming inflation data, while corporate earnings and policy developments added to uncertainty around the market outlook.
Markets have been attempting to balance resilient equity performance with soft consumer data, tariff tensions, and growing concerns about artificial-intelligence-driven disruption across several industries.
Jobs report and rate outlook in focus
Investors are closely watching the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ January nonfarm payrolls report, which was postponed due to a partial government shutdown that ended on Feb. 3.
Economists expect limited improvement in hiring conditions, with the Dow Jones consensus calling for a gain of 55,000 jobs compared with a 50,000 increase in December, and an unemployment rate of 4.4%.
The employment figures come at a sensitive moment for monetary policy expectations.
Markets are trying to determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability of an April rate cut rose to 35.5% from 32.2% a day earlier, although traders still broadly expect the first reduction to occur in June.
Investors will also be watching Friday’s consumer price index release, which could further influence expectations for rate cuts.
Markets subdued as AI and tariffs weigh
Futures reflected cautious sentiment.
At the time of writing, Dow Jones futures were up by 32 points or 0.06%. The S&P 500 futures were up 0.09% while the Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.14%.
The broader market has been reacting to weaker-than-expected consumer data.
A report showed December consumer spending was flat, missing expectations for a 0.4% monthly increase.
The S&P 500 declined 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell about 0.6% in the previous session, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% to a record close.
Artificial-intelligence disruption remains a key concern.
After software stocks fell last week, financial services shares came under pressure when startup Altruist introduced AI-enabled tax-planning tools.
Political developments also remain in view.
The US House of Representatives rejected a Republican effort to block legislative challenges to tariffs imposed on Canada, and a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the tariffs is expected in the coming months.
Corporate earnings drive individual stock moves
Corporate results contributed to volatility across individual stocks.
Cloudflare shares surged 14% in premarket after issuing a stronger-than-expected annual and first-quarter sales forecast.
In contrast, Robinhood fell 7.8% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue below expectations.
Other notable moves included Moderna, which dropped 10.13% after the US Food and Drug Administration declined to review its influenza vaccine application, and Lyft, which tumbled 17% after issuing a weaker profit forecast and lower projected ride volumes.
Investors are also monitoring upcoming earnings from Kraft Heinz, T-Mobile, Shopify, and Humana.
Overall, markets remain in a holding pattern as traders await labor market clarity and inflation data that could reshape expectations for interest rates and the economic outlook.
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